Ukraine has the lowest Fertility Rate in Europe, Macedonia in the middle

According to UN estimates released last year, Europe already hit its peak population in 2021 and has slowly started its population decline.

How did this happen, and can this trend reverse?

To answer that question, Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao tracks the total fertility rate of every European country per UN estimates for 2025.

Ranked: European Countries by Total Fertility Rates 2025

As it happens, 2.1 is a key threshold for fertility rates.

At this level, an area’s population remains stable. Above it, it’s likely to grow (barring war, disease, and famine). And below it, it’s likely to decline (barring immigration).

Looking at the data in the table above, almost all of Europe is below population replacement rate.

Monaco is the only exception, and is likely skewed upwards due to its small size (39,000 residents). Any small change in the number of babies born there can dramatically affect the fertility rate.

Zooming out, Northern and Western Europe have had below replacement fertility rates since the 1960s. Time and immigration helped delay immediate effects but four decades of falling fertility rates are finally having an impact.

Unless immigration patterns change significantly (and these new immigrants have more children), it’s unlikely this trend will reverse.